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Statistics Theorymath.STIS-MM-isotonic-df-const
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The sharp constant in the degrees-of-freedom bound for binary isotonic regression: an exact certificate, and an erratum to a numerical check

Abstract

Rossellini, Barber, Ren and Soloff [RBRS] bound the number of distinct fitted values of isotonic regression on a binary sample of size n by an explicit quantity f(n) built from the Euler totient, and write f(n)=c n^(2/3)+δₙ with c=3/(4π²)^(1/3). A proposition of that paper asserts δₙ ≤ 0.63 n^(1/6) for all n ≤ 2 · 10²³, and reduces it by two concavity interpolations to the Farey-type inequality R_K:=B_K-c n_K^(2/3) ≤ 0.63 n_K^(1/6) for all K ≤ 10⁸, where n_K=1+Σ_(j ≤ K)jφ(j) and B_K=1+Σ_(j ≤ K)φ(j) are the sum of the denominators and the number of terms of the Farey series of order K; that inequality is verified there by a printed floating-point script. We determine the optimal constant. It is αᵃˢᵗ=5 · 10^(-1/6)-3√(10) (4π²)^(-1/3)=0.6203305642542976…, a transcendental number. We prove R_K ≤ αᵃˢᵗ n_K^(1/6) for every K ≤ 10⁶+1, with equality at K=3; hence δₙ ≤ αᵃˢᵗ n^(1/6) for every n ≤ n_(10⁶)=202 642 368 741 515 820, which is 17 of the 23 decades the source asserts, and no smaller constant works on any range containing n=10, where f(10)=5 and δ₁₀=αᵃˢᵗ · 10^(1/6) exactly. The finite verification is an exact integer certificate: the inequality is cubed to remove the cube root in c, sixth roots enter as checked rationals m/2²⁰, and π enters only through a twenty-digit rational bound, so no floating-point arithmetic occurs anywhere in it. We also record an erratum to the source's printed script, whose cumulative sums are accumulated in binary64 through an unintended integer-type promotion: at K=10⁶ the exact n_K is 202 642 368 741 515 820 against the script's 202 642 368 741 518 368, and near K=9.3 · 10⁷ the script's value of the quantity it maximises has the wrong sign. The proposition's conclusion is unaffected, the maximum sitting at K=3 in small exact integers; this corrects the certificate, not the theorem. Everything above is machine-checked in Lean 4 except three things, each flagged in the text: the transcendence, a one-line consequence of Lindemann's theorem proved by hand; the decimal digits of αᵃˢᵗ beyond the ten of the certified enclosure; and the measurements of the printed script over its full range, of which only the exact value at K=10⁶ is formal.

Open review

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Archived files

  1. Version 1 · current (opens in a new tab)

    Source snapshot 2026-09-07 03:53 UTC

    File fingerprint71b7b4299718d726a44dbe3fc376e2ba0f81f3a1787d359ab928931465523a8e

Claim ledger

Stated results

8 entries
IDC1candidate2026-09-03

R_K = B_K - c n_K^(2/3) satisfies R_K <= alpha* n_K^(1/6) for every K <= 1000001, where c = 3/(4 pi²)^(1/3), n_K = 1 + sum_(j<=K) j phi(j), B_K = 1 + sum_(j<=K) phi(j) and alpha* = R₃/n₃^(1/6) = 0.6203305642542976...; the source states the same inequality with 0.63

IDC2routine2026-09-03

alpha* = R₃/n₃^(1/6) = 5*10^(-1/6) - 3*sqrt(10)*(4 pi²)^(-1/3), and 0.6203305642 < alpha* < 0.6203305643

IDC3candidate2026-09-03

alpha* is attained: f(10) = 5 exactly, so delta₁0 = R₃ = alpha* * 10^(1/6) and no constant below alpha* satisfies the source's Proposition on any range containing n = 10

IDC4candidate2026-09-03

deltaₙ <= alpha* n^(1/6) for every n <= n_(10⁶) = 202642368741515820 (about 2.03e17): every value admissible for the source's f(n) is at most c n^(2/3) + alpha* n^(1/6), with the source's two concavity interpolations reproved in Lean

IDC5correction2026-09-03

The exact value the source's printed verification script misses: n_(10⁶) = 202642368741515820 and B_(10⁶) = 303963552393, against the script's float64 value 202642368741518368

IDC6routine2026-09-03

Negative controls: the constant 31/50 = 0.62 used off K = 3 fails at K = 3; the ten-digit truncation 0.6203305642 fails at K = 3; c n^(2/3) alone already fails at n = 10; and the K = 3 exemption in the sweep is load-bearing (coreChk (n₃) (B₃) = false, both neighbours true)

IDC7correction2026-09-03

Measured float64 defect of the printed verification script over its own range: R_K is wrong by 0.0021 at K = 10⁶, 0.76 at K = 10⁷, 89.6 at K = 10⁸ (44 percent of the value) and 496.8 near K = 9.29e7 (exact +16.25, script -480.5), and the normalised quantity R_K/n_K^(1/6) is wrong by 0.0672 at K = 92926626, where the exact value is +0.00220 and the script returns -0.06504 – the wrong sign and thirty times the magnitude

This ledger entry is reported in prose and is not bound to a Lean theorem.
IDC8measurement2026-09-03

Cost of the kernel band: K <= 10⁶ costs 225 s of native_decide at 6.7 GB (the Mathlib baseline); extending to K <= 10⁷ is about 45 minutes in one file and needs the fold split across modules; K <= 10⁸ (the source's range) is priced at about 8 CPU-hours and is parked

This ledger entry is reported in prose and is not bound to a Lean theorem.

Provenance

Generated by
Machina Mathematica
Released by
Korea Superintelligence Labs
Source context
arXiv:2607.27301v1 (Raphael Rossellini, Rina Foygel Barber, Zhimei Ren, Jake A. Soloff, *An analysis of binary isotonic regression: degrees of freedom and implications for calibration*, stat.ML / cs.LG / stat.ME, 29 Jul 2026; single version, not withdrawn, no comment line).
Snapshot
2026-09-07 03:53 UTC
Ledger commit
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